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Most airport security is ineffective against intelligent, coordinated and capable threat groups with more of the focus and application upon random, individual acts and highly reactive to yesterday’s threat: which is part of the reason it frustrates so many. There is also little international consistency between the application and implementation of aviation security which in turn encourages the seeking out and exploitation of vulnerable, accessible channels by more capable, international threat groups. The retrospective admissions and revelations that this one flight had so many airport security anomalies will drive change, innovation and frustration for travellers as a result. Passports: A growing illegal market and utility In much the same way technology has been a very slow improvement in the commercial aviation space, so too have passports and passport control. Paper books used for international travel in a world where money and currency interactions, along with electronic identification and verification takes place in a matter of seconds seem almost laughable but a reality for some time to come as not all countries and users have the resources or technology for anything more advanced. This means they can be fraudulently used too. International agencies such as Interpol have for many years tried to raise awareness in the gaps and threats posed by stolen passports in particular.
Coupled with the ever growing attempts to collect valid passports by illegal and false means, results in a significant number of international travellers or opportunities to move among the commercial travelling population. The chance of detection is also reduced when screening measures are not complied with or there are routine and regular lapses in verification systems. Those that use or exploit these vulnerabilities range from the frightened fleeing to the deadly en route. Successful Plans and Ideas: A catalyst for next generation threats A better prize always attracts a better quality and prepared competitor. So too does the world of criminal, violent or terror based threats.
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Training and tactics have always been shared by these individuals and groups thanks to cultural ties, technology and even institutions where you end up with a concentration of like minded collaborators. But when any one or more of these groups are successful and their planning and tactics are then made public, a whole host of capable and prospective threats are free to pursue similar plans. We have seen this over the past decade, from the 9/11, Pakistan, Mumbai and Algeria type terrorism attacks that have taken place with each group learning and improving upon the last. Direct Impact and Likely Outcomes of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 Aviation technology will face reed pressure for modernisation and upgrades. This will put economic burden on an already pressured industry and will likely drive some providers or services out of select markets as a result.
Governments will also be pressured to regulate and spend in this area too but inconsistent international results will not close the gap or solve the problem in the next decade. This gap will remain a key vulnerability for competent and persistent threat groups. Aviation standards and risk metrics will be reviewed in light of the complete disappearance of an aircraft and the world’s inability to locate it within a timely manner.
Some standards will be too onerous for some providers or markets, further increasing the gap between developed and emerging economies. No evidence of defect will no longer be considered as evidence of no defects by regulators and consumers. Buyers and consumers will change their spending habits for what they see or feel as better indicators for safety, security and risk management. Airspace management changes are needed.
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Ageing infrastructure, public/private expenditure will be demanded but with no direct cost recovery means for most.
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